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This Is Just to Say

I've watched this skid, and I've thought to myself, "Is this really happening?"

This team beat the world in June while struggling offensively. The hitting has rebounded but the pitching has collapsed back into mediocrity. But mediocre pitching and awesome hitting should still win a lot of games, but the Yankees haven't.

Split GS R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip
April/March 22 120 208 39 1 37 116 13 88 138 .273 .350 .472 .286
May 28 112 246 53 2 39 108 12 82 194 .261 .325 .445 .289
June 27 137 225 44 2 46 129 15 102 215 .248 .329 .453 .274
July 26 128 239 42 4 42 128 16 76 200 .271 .334 .470 .304
August 28 133 256 52 2 36 129 10 85 199 .268 .331 .439 .302
Sept/Oct 3 10 15 2 1 2 9 2 11 15 .170 .267 .284 .181
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/5/2012.

Split W L W-L% ERA GS IP R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
April/March 13 9 .591 4.33 22 197.1 102 95 27 64 192 1.358 8.8 3.00
May 14 14 .500 3.97 28 245.0 115 108 38 79 210 1.351 7.7 2.66
June 20 7 .741 2.99 27 246.2 93 82 23 71 239 1.176 8.7 3.37
July 13 13 .500 3.97 26 229.0 110 101 27 72 210 1.293 8.3 2.92
August 15 13 .536 3.94 28 247.0 119 108 33 53 209 1.215 7.6 3.94
Sept/Oct 1 2 .333 5.19 3 26.0 15 15 4 14 19 1.577 6.6 1.36
Sept/Oct,GR 1 1 .500 3.86 0 9.1 4 4 0 5 6 1.393 5.8 1.20
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/5/2012.

I see a lot of similarities month to month. I also see a case to be made that August, despite the win-loss record, was the Yanks' best month when pitching and hitting are weighed together.

So what gives?

Since taking 3 out of 4 from Texas and 2 out of 3 from Boston, the Yanks have gone 4-10. That's a .285 winning percentage for those of you scoring at home; played over a full season, that would win 46 games. That's below replacement level. That's below 2012 Houston Astros level. Hell, only 16 teams in MLB history have ever been worse than that over a full season, and of those, only 3 have played since World War II (the '52 Pirates, the '62 Mets, and the '03 Tigers).

So what's gone wrong in these ten losses? In 3 the bullpen has given up the decisive run in the 7th inning or later. In the 1 starter has lasted less than 5 innings. In 7 the offense has scored 3 or fewer runs.

Blame the offense. The pitchers have mostly pitched just well enough to lose. Hughes, Kuroda, Sabathia, and Phelps have all had at least one tough luck loss in this stretch. If June was a month when the life was sweet, then August was a month when everything went just a little cold.

But take a breath and look back up at that chart, and remind yourself that the Yankees have one of the top offenses in baseball, and that August was another good month, even playing through the injuries.

Which means that all of this is really just to say baseball is a funny game. But it's a funny game that's bound to start breaking back the other way.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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