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A Hypothetical 2014 Roster Including Josh Hamilton and Robinson Cano [Updated]

Over the last few days, it seems like Josh Hamilton's suitors have been dwindling. The Rangers are expected to sign Zack Greinke, and if that happens, it becomes very unlikely that Hamilton will return to Texas. His only other suitor at that point would seem to be the Seattle Mariners, but they're essentially his safety school. That could give the Yankees a chance to sweep in. His hypothetical contract: four years, $96M, a hefty payday of $24M per season.

Update: Zack Grienke signed with the Dodgers, but the Rangers are supposedly reluctant to go further than three years on a contract for Hamilton, so if the Yankees go four, they would have a chance. This is all hypothetical, offseason fodder anyway, so whatever.

Meanwhile, Robinson Cano just came out and said that he isn't giving the Yankees a hometown discount. That's fine, he has every right not to, and as the best second baseman in baseball he'll have plenty of money thrown at him. Plus, he has Scott Boras as an agent, so did we really anticipate anything else? I'm expecting him to eventually sign for something along the lines of 9 years, $216M, or $24M per season.

With that kind of money committed to two players, along with about $75M in AAV (average annual value) committed to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia for the 2014 season, it would seem impossible to have both of Cano and Hamilton on the 2014 roster when considering Hal Steinbrenner's $189M or bust payroll limit. Even worse, that $189M is essentially $178M when taking player benefit packages into account.

But I did the math, and it's doable. Let's take a look at what a potential roster in 2014 would look like, along with allocations and salary predictions for players.

Note - I may be off on some of the salaries due to arbitration raises, but if I am, I tried to be off on the high side, not the low. I want to make this look as accurate as possible, so leaving myself with less wiggle room makes the most sense.

Infield, DH, and Infield Bench Players

Player Position Luxury Tax Hit
Hypothetical Catcher $4M
Mark Teixeira First Base $23.125M
Robinson Cano Second Base $24M
Hypothetical Third Base $4M
Derek Jeter Shortstop $13M
Alex Rodriguez Designated Hitter/Corner Infielder $27.5M
Corban Joseph Infield Backup $0.5M
Eduardo Nunez Infield Backup $0.5M
Austin Romine Backup Catcher $0.5M
Subtotal $97.125M

At catcher, the Yankees have a limited amount of money to spend. Who knows, they could even go with a Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine duo and spend even less than I have allocated for them. Maybe even Gary Sanchez is considered Major League ready, though that's a long shot.

If they do spend some money on a free agent, they could go after a guy like Geovany Soto, who signed for under $3M this offseason on a one year deal. Finding catchers at this price is not too difficult, and it's possible that they could spend less than the $4M I projected.

I think expecting Cano to sign for $24M per year is a fair estimate. If he signs for less, all the better. I'm not sure I can see him getting more than nine years, $216M, though. At that point, how much more do you really need?

Third base is tricky. If Alex Rodriguez is healthy enough, they could save a few million here by playing him at third base and spending $2M or so on a DH. They could also trade for a cost controlled third base prospect such as Nick Castellanos or Mike Olt. If that happens, that frees up some money to be spent in other areas, such as the hypothetical free agent starting pitcher I have listed below. A-Rod also doubles as the back-up corner infielder.

Derek Jeter has a player option worth $8M plus incentives in 2014. The incentives are based on finishes in MVP voting, winning the Silver Slugger, and winning Gold Gloves. At most, the option could be worth $17M. I put his money at $13M since that's basically right down the middle, and there's no way he's winning any Gold Gloves so it could be even less than what I allocated for him.

A bench filled with homegrown players is probably the most realistic option when operating under a budget with so many star players signed to lucrative contracts.

Outfield and Outfield Bench Players

Player Position Luxury Tax Hit
Josh Hamilton Left Field $24M
Brett Gardner Center Field $5M
Tyler Austin Right Field $0.5M
Hypothetical Fourth Outifelder $2M
Subtotal $31.5M

Brett Gardner shifts over to center field as Curtis Granderson is the odd man out here due to salary. Tyler Austin is the wild card in the outfield - the Yankees need cost-controlled players in order for the payroll limit to work. If Austin starts in right field during the 2014 season, that would give the Yankees a much needed league minimum player at an important position. Austin is currently a top 30 hitting prospect in all of baseball, and he could move up that list with another strong season, splitting time at Double-A and Triple-A in a pefect scenario.

In addition, I gave the team $2M to spend on a fourth outfielder, which may be more than what they need to spend. For example, the Yankees signed Raul Ibanez for $1.1M in 2012. A similar signing would be ideal in 2014.

Rotation

Player Position Luxury Tax Hit
CC Sabathia Starting Pitcher $24.4M
Free Agent Starting Pitcher $10M
Michael Pineda Starting Pitcher $2M
Ivan Nova Starting Pitcher $2M
David Phelps Starting Pitcher $0.5M
Subtotal $38.9M

The free agent here is the wild card. If the Yankees trim the fat with other allocations, such as spending $1M less on a fourth outfielder or a little less on catcher, then that would leave them with some more room to offer a better contract to a better pitcher. Furthermore, if they trade for a cost-controlled third baseman (Seriously, Castellanos or Olt) as I discussed above, that would give them another $3.5M to play around with at that position.

We're counting on Michael Pineda to come back and have an impact season in 2014, but this is why he was traded for in the first place. Ivan Nova and David Phelps could be traded at some point for a young, cost-controlled starter, but we can't predict that. However, if it does happen, they could actually save $1M or $2M if the hypothetical starter that was traded for has yet to reach arbitration. If those two are traded for a young starter, they could then use the money saved to sign a fifth starter, such as a Freddy Garcia type, to round out the rotation.

Bullpen

Player Position Luxury Tax Hit
David Robertson Closer $4M
Joba Chamberlain Set-Up $3M
David Aardsma Middle Relief $1.2M
Clay Rapada LOOGY $0.5M
Brett Marshall 6th Sterter/Long Relief $0.5M
Hypothetical Middle Relief $0.5M
Hypothetical Middle Relief $0.5M
Subtotal $10.2M

I projected Robertson with a $4M salary in his last arbitration eligible season, which seems decent enough for a guy who has never closed. He's projected $2.7M in 2013, so that seems fair. Joba is projected to make $1.8M as a third year arbitration eligible player before hitting free agency in 2014. A three year, $9M dollar deal seems fair enough for a guy who has had trouble performing and staying healthy. I have the Yankees bringing Aardsma back, but he could be replaced with any other guy in that price range. Rapada and Marshall are making league minimum, so that is extremely beneficial.

The two hypothetical relievers could be anyone. Back end relievers are so interchangeable that it isn't worth predicting who could be there. But what the hell. One guy could easily be Cody Eppley, and another could be a Rule V draft selection. Even Mark Montgomery has a chance to make the 2014 roster, if not get a call up during the 2013 season.

Anyway, there we have it. A roster including Josh Hamilton and Robinson Cano, coming in at a payroll of $177.725M, $0.275M under the $178M it will take for the Yankees to stay under a $189M payroll - remember, benefit packages.

If they need to get lower than the $177.725M I came up with for whatever reasons that I probably don't know about, they can always just spend less on that free agent starter I allocated for.

Thoughts? How would you feel about a 25-man roster that looked like this?

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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