Nagging thought in Brian Cashman's head: "I know I had a top rotation prospect around here somewhere. Now, where did I put him?" (AP)
Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans. So sang John Lennon. Indeed, while the Yankees have been busy preparing a contract offer for Cliff Lee and waiting for Andy Pettitte to announce his intentions for next season, all of the viable alternative starting pitching options from among this offseason’s free agent crop have signed with other teams.
Back on November 11, I identified four pitchers who, in my opinion, were the only other starters on the market worth considering for the Yankees’ 2011 rotation. With the Rockies re-inking Jorge De La Rosa yesterday, all are now off the market. Here are those four with the terms of their new contracts:
• Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers, $12 million/1 year
• Jake Westbrook, Cardinals, $16.5 million/2 years, $8.5M mutual option for 2013
• Jon Garland, Dodgers, $5 million/1 year, $8M vesting option for 2012
• Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies, $32 million/3 years (unofficial)
The Dodgers not only re-signed Kuroda, who clearly took a lesser deal than he could have landed on the open market to stay in a comfortable situation, and signed Garland away from the division rival Padres for almost nothing, but also kept former Yankee lefty Ted Lilly, who would have been the fifth name on my list, from even reaching free agency by extending him for three years and $33 million prior to the World Series.
With those five off the market, the best available staring pitcher other than Lee or Pettitte is Carl Pavano. With his bridge to the Yankees already burned, the Yankees’ next option would be someone from a group comprised of Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood, Aaron Harang, Hisanori Takahashi, David Bush, and Doug Davis. Takahashi should interest the Yankees as a left-handed relief option who could start if needed, but not as a full-time starter. The others shouldn’t interest the Yankees at all.
Just to deal with each quickly . . . Vicente Padilla posted a 93 ERA+ in four years with the Rangers (in a hitter-friendly park in the American League), hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2006, posted a 94 ERA+ in 16 starts for the Dodgers (in a pitcher-friendly park in the National League) this year at age 32, and had his season ended early by a bulging disk in his neck, that after missing two months early in the season due to a radial nerve problem in his pitching arm. Kevin Millwood posted a 95 ERA+ over the last four seasons with Texas and Baltimore, posing a sub-90 ERA+ in three of those seasons. He’ll turn 36 on Christmas Eve. Aaron Harang hasn’t made 30 starts since 2007 and has seen his workload shrink in each of the last four seasons due to nagging injuries. He has posted a 90 ERA+ over the last three years, didn’t make the Reds’ postseason roster this year, and will be 33 in May. Takahashi posted a 5.01 ERA in 12 starts for the Mets in his Stateside debut this year. David Bush has posted an ERA+ of 85 over the last four years and has surpassed 190 innings pitched just once in his career. He just turned 31. Doug Davis was a solid league-average innings eater for most of the last decade (108 ERA+ from 2001 to 2009 and an average of 196 innings per season from 2004 to 2009), but he has faced serious health problems in recent years. Thyroid cancer interrupted his 2008 season, and pericarditis (inflammation in the membrane around his heart) and elbow tendonitis limited him to eight starts in 2010. He’s 35.
Like one of the last survivors at the Alamo, Jay Jaffe has been bravely keeping the fight for Joba Chamberlain to return to the rotation alive despite the Yankees having already declared that equine extinct, but looking at what are now the alternatives, it seems clear to me that, should the Yankees fail to sign both Lee and Pettitte, Chamberlain is clearly their best Plan-B option barring a significant trade. If I had any fight left in me on the subject, I’d point out that that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but as it stands, I do expect both Lee and Pettitte to be in the Yankee rotation come April, making the Chamberlain option doubly moot. Still, without a viable outside alternative, the Yankees will now have to negotiate with Lee and Pettitte without a net or much leverage.
What’s the Plan B if any of the starters gets hurt mid-season? Between Burnett, Pettitte, and even Hughes that seems likely – none threw 200 innings last year. Is it Nova then Phelps or are we looking at more of the same from guys like Mosley, Mitre, Ponson, Gaudin, Erickson?
It will be nova and a couple of retreads
Excuse me, but I just threw up in mouth.
Lol I know how you feel it doesn’t exactly scream joy. If it was up to me Joba would be the guy that I call on but the Yankees have decided he’s a reliever going forward smh. They are high on Nova now and that’s why he will probably be the 1st one to get the call.
I think it’ll depend on the severity of the injury. You’ll probably see guys like Mitre or Mosely or even Aceves make a spot start if needed, but if a starter goes down for an extended period, it’d probably be Nova or Phelps or Noesi.
Keep banging that drum on Joba, Jay! What I’d love to know from Cashman is how they could expect Joba to be a developed pitcher when he spent all of 88 innings in the minors honing his craft. Even then I find it remarkable that he’s been a marginally better starter than Hughes.
Yea that’s the thing about him and Hughes…the difference is not as stark as ppl believe. The belief among some Yankee fans is the medical staff of the Yankees have determined that Joba can’t hold up as a starter.
Even if that’s true, Joba has been healthier than Hughes.
Over their careers yes he has been healthier than Hughes. I hope he gets traded and has a chance to start somewhere else but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.
and why expect more out of Cashman — he has no ability to go beyond the obvious and no guts for a trade — the Yankee way is to spend $s, which they have in abundance, and sign the half spent cigar butts — a process that produced nothing between 1980 and 1994 — and avoidable postseason meltdowns from 2001 to 2008. History repeats — put the team on a budget and force some chess moves — we would love a reincarnation of michaels and watson — or just use the money but channel some michaels and watson
On pitching, I agree. Cashman has no standing in 13 years. That by itself is pretty amazing. If anything, on pitching, Cashman seems below replacement value. His trades have been awful – Weaver, Vazquez, Unit, even guys like Clippard and Ohlendorf. His signings have been awful – Igawa, Pavano, Burnett, even relievers like Karsay, Marte. And his development of pitchers has been awful – nothing in those 13 years unless you count Wang (who was a fluke) and Hughes (who has been decidedly average). But given those failures as a whole, I’m inclined to blame the entire front office, not just the GM.
However, the trades for position players – specifically Swisher and Granderson – have been inspired. They got two major pieces and didn’t give up much in the process. Even the A-Rod trade looks pretty darn good in retrospect. The in-season moves though haven’t added much and there are only so many times you can mention David Justice.
Given Cashman’s tenure, we need a good accounting. Given his resources, I don’t see how he doesn’t come up looking very lacking.
His track record on pitching is bad, yes. It’s not THAT bad though.
Mussina and CC are not in your list, for instance. Also, Clippard & Ohlendorf weren’t going to hack it in the AL East. They’ve gone on to have modest success in the NL, sure. But I’m not tearing my hair out over them. Weaver/Lilly was a mistake, yes. Signing Jared Wright & Pavano… ugh. Trades for the old, broke-down, busted Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson didn’t work (though I’m not sure they really surrendered much talent in either move), and I’m not really sure how much of that was the last gasp of (lucid) Big Stein. That right there is another problem in evaluating a GM (when you have an active & demanding owner).
My overall take is that FA pitchers are really, really, really risky. As much as I’ve been pissed at Cash’s mistakes, I think it has more to do with the team relying on the FA market for pitching than it does his inability to identify the best FA pitchers available.
As for development, the only good ones since Pettitte have been Lilly, Wang and to some extent Joba & Hughes (jury’s out on them). I don’t think you can knock the team for Wang being a “fluke” any more than you can rip them for a “sure thing” that doesn’t make it. That said, it’s an unimpressive track record.
How much of that was poor drafting and how much was poor development… hard to say. There was definitely a period of atrocious drafting.
I hope yanks loose out on Lee and others and have to build from within. The nucleus that came up together won the WS games in 96-2000 and that’s whats need now. get younger, stronger, faster and multi-dimensional.USE THE FARM
You do realize that those dynasty teams had exactly one starter from their farm, right?
Cone, Key, Wells, Clemens, Duque, Rogers, etc.
Pettitte is the exception. The problem is the Yankees haven’t even developed one pitcher since.
Hard to blame the entire front office and NOT solely Cashman. It seems that few remember that the deals (done and NOT done) that strengthened the roster for a decade were orchestrated by Bob Watson and Stick Michael. Neither one as GM had the bankroll to sign the top 3 free agents on the market as did Cashman (in order to win his first ring – earned).
In fairness I can’t attribute Hughes mediocrity to more than Torre who misused him. Girardi gets the blame for letting Joba push for the rotation when he should have been groomed in the pen as Mariano was under Wetteland.
Hard to blame the entire front office and NOT solely Cashman. It seems that few remember that the deals (done and NOT done) that strengthened the roster for a decade were orchestrated by Bob Watson and Stick Michael. Neither one as GM had the bankroll to sign the top 3 free agents on the market as did Cashman (in order to win his first ring – earned).
In fairness I can’t attribute Hughes mediocrity to more than Torre who misused him. Girardi gets the blame for letting Joba push for the rotation when he should have been groomed in the pen as Mariano was under Wetteland.
Why should have Joba been groomed as Mo’s replacement. Ask yourself this question if the Yankees have a chance to acquire a top flight closer would they pass up on him because they have Joba? If Soria was a available how long would it take for them to decide alright lets get him.
[...] outfielders with middling bats, and because it will reveal their remaining plans to be Cliff Lee Or Bust, which means Lee very well could get Sabathia money despite the fact that he’ll be 33 before [...]
(In case of emergency, break glass scenario)
If there are injuries in the rotation, I got a feeling that they might use up a few options on Andrew Brackman this year. He better get used to the AAA shuttle-shuffle.
…and that’s based on an assumption that Nova’s already going to be on the major league roster for a majority of the season.
[...] before they ended. As frustrating as that may be for the Yankees, what it’s done for Lee is dry out the secondary market for starting pitching market, as the most desirable free agents — none of them the caliber of [...]
looks like cash did another great job not adding nunez to get lee . we woudnt be going through with this and proberly have signed him for less.it cost us a chance to go to a world series last year.jeter and arod arent getting younger take advantage of their talents now.cash is always one step behind dealing from weakness. from shilling on foward generally hes awful
[...] to round out their 2011 rotation blew up in their faces when Lee signed with the Phillies. With all of those solid second-tier guys already off the market, the Yankees’ best remaining option is moving Chamberlain into the rotation and signing a [...]
[...] waited for Lee’s decision, Hiroki Kuroda, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Jorge De La Rosa all signed with other teams, leaving Carl Pavano as the only “reliable” starter left on the free agent market (more [...]