"I've got a pair of hits for the evening, and I've been my team's hottest hitter over the last week... but I think I'll bunt in a game changing situation."
Surprisingly, Curtis Granderson's sacrifice bunt in the 7th inning of yesterday's game did actually increase the Yankees' odds of winning the game- by little over one tenth of one percent.
Let's imagine for a moment that something else could have occurred, and use the Hardball Time's Win Probability Calculator to evaluate the possibilities.
I'm assuming a 4.0 run environment- I don't know what Target Field's actual environment, but 4.0 is on the low side of average, and Target has been a pitcher friendly park. When Granderson stepped to the plate, the Yankees had an 87.55% chance of winning the game.
| Play | Outcome | Likelihood | WPA | Outcome | WPA | Outcome | WPA |
| Double Play | runner on 3rd, 0 scored |
1.9% | -6.27 | runner on 2nd, 0 scored |
-6.63 | runner on 1st, 0 scored |
-7.45 |
| One out, grounder or fly- | runners on 2nd & 3rd, 0 scored |
65% | +0.17 | on 1st & 3rd, 0 scored |
-1.00 | on 1st & 2nd, 0 scored |
-3.29 |
| Single | 2 runs scores | 13.8% | +7.53 | 1 run scored, runners 1st & 2nd |
+5.44 | 1 run scored, 1st & 3rd | +6.99 |
| Walk | 0 runs score, bases loaded | 10.5% |
+4.12 | ||||
| Double | 2 runs score |
3.5% |
+8.21 | 1 run scores | +7.36 | ||
| Triple | 2 runs score | 1.5% | +9.07 | ||||
| Homer | 3 runs score | 4.0% | +9.42 |
So, for clarity: Curtis Granderson made the 'smart' baseball play, forcing the most likely outcome, sacrificing a nearly 1 in 3 chance of a more favorable outcome, out of fear of a less favorable outcome which occurs less than twice every hundred times.
Methodology after the jump.
GIDP: career GIDP/ PA with runners on
Single: '08, '09, '10 H- (2B+3B+HR)/PA
Double: '08, '09, '10 2B/PA
Triples: '08, '09, '10 3B/PA
Homer: '08, '09, '10 HR/PA
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