Cliff Lee: Let him do his laughing in Texas. (AP)
Even before last night’s Game 1 disappointment, I have been firmly convinced that the Yankees should not do what everyone expects them to do, and throw the gross domestic product of Luxembourg at the left-hander. In the last few years, Lee has become one of the great control artists of all time. And yet, he is also 31. He is at that same dangerous stage of life that so many other Yankees have reached, where the minor aches and pains of one’s 20s become the surgeries of one’s 30s. As with the A.J. Burnett contract, a Lee who is not in peak form will tie the team’s hands for years to come, soaking up dollars and a roster spot that would be better spent on the young.
And the Yankees do have youth, if they’re willing to investigate the possibilities presented by their own farm. None of the pitchers now maturing is likely to evolve into a Cliff Lee, simply because few pitchers can or will. Indeed, it is entirely possible that of the long list of possibilities such as Ivan Nova, D.J. Mitchell, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, and Adam Warren, all of whom pitched at Double- or Triple-A last year, the Yankees could go 0-for-8. Pitchers come quickly these days; of all the teams in the majors, it is only the Yankees who endlessly sit on pitching prospects in favor of veteran retreads like Dustin Moseley and Sergio Mitre—and to no good end. In 12 starts this year, Moseley and Mitre combined to go 4-6 and allow 42 runs in 64.2 innings (5.85 RA). It is unlikely that a qualified prospect would have been worse.
In fact, the prospects could have been a lot better. And while the proper comparison is not to the M&M boys but to Lee, the South’s Marble Man. The problem is in choosing which Lee to compare him to. Lee has a 3.85 ERA career ERA. Over the last three years, his ERA was an excellent 2.98, 40 percent better than league average. We should not necessarily expect him to be that good in the future. Yankee Stadium isn’t conducive to it, the DH league isn’t conducive. Age and injury are not conducive. The universe, which despises anything that isn’t average and normal and low-energy, isn’t conducive. You give a 31-year-old lefty a five- or six-year deal, you are, unless blessed, going to get five years of 2.98 ERAs. You might not get five years of 3.50. You’re also likely to get some extended DL time.
As in any casino game, when you bet on a pitcher, the odds are slanted in favor of the house. For teams with no other options, or a team geared up to win it all now and then sink back into the second division, giving a veteran starter a lot of money for too many years is a reasonable plan. That’s what the Mets did with Pedro Martinez, paying for four years when there was only a reasonable expectation that they might get two. In the event, they got one. Cliff Lee is younger than Martinez, and perhaps he’s a better bet health-wise, but there is no way to know for certain. The Yankees have choices, some of whom will be viable big leaguers three years from now, when whichever team signs Lee is trying to figure out the best way to get rid of him. The Yankees aren’t in that position. They have alternatives, choices they’ve spent good money on. Now is the time to test them and find the next Cliff Lee, or even the next Andy Pettitte. He could be lurking somewhere in the pile, and he won’t cost a fraction of what Lee does. If the Yankees leave Lee to others, they might even get to find out who he is.
I’m torn. I think a 4 year, 90ish deal is probably the highest they should go- of course, it won’t be enough.
Nonetheless, flags do fly forever, and if Lee can lead Jeter, Jorge, Andy, Mo & Co. to another couple of WS, the investment would have been a worthwhile one.
Andy is unlikely to play for longer than another year, so a slot is due to open in the rotation in 2012, and not sure a top flight starter will be ready before then anyway. Perhaps another in 2013?
You’re right that the inability to develop useful, cheap starters has hurt the team in the past and will do so again. The point, though, isn’t to develop young players, it’s to win chamionships.
I more or less agree, but, if Pettitte retires, who are the Yankees going to use in the 4 and 5 spots? I could see them letting one young pitcher take the 5 spot in the rotation (and with Pettite’s age, even that is risky; you have to see Pettitte as filling only half a slot now). Relying on 2 young pitchers in the rotation would be outright fool-hardy for a team like the Yankees with a $200 million investment at stake. Maybe they could make an offer to someone like de la Rosa, but that is also expensive and not risk-free, to say the least.
(By the way, what I’m saying does not at all suggest that I agree with the plan for Joba; I’m just accepting that Cashman and Girardi’s view of him won’t change.)
I disagree with most of what you’re saying. First off, as it stands the Yankees have 1 ace, CC. While Phil Hughes had a great first year as a regular starter, he was shaky and didn’t fare all that well in the post. Then you have A.J., whose become a complete lame duck at this point. Finally, who knows if Andy will come back, and if he does what if he gets saddled with another season altering injury?
Cliff Lee is probably the most dominant pitcher in all of Baseball today, and it’s unlikely he’s going to diminish much at least in the next 5 years. With Cliff and C.C., the Yanks will have a double team of Aces who will serve us well for many years to come. If they give him a six or seven year deal, it’ll probably be money well spent. It’s unlikely Cliff Lee will be a Carl Pavano.
I will agree with you that they should be looking to the farm system for replacing Javy Vasquez, or possibly Andy if he chooses to retire (hoping he’ll give us one more though).
it’s unlikely he’s going to diminish much at least in the next 5 years.
Pitchers are made to get hurt. That he’s already having back troubles is all the “likely” we need to understand the professor’s POV.
you need to see more baseball
Here’s why I disagree with this: You’re right that the Yankees should first consider cheaper, younger options for solving their problems. The exception, I’d argue, is when you can get a genuine superstar in his prime. If the Yankees are not willing to go all in on players like that, they are giving up a unique competitive advantage of being the Yankees. Without players like CC, Tex, A-Rod, the Yankees may be a well run team, may be a winning team, may even be a great team in a given year, but they are giving up an edge, and without that edge it will be almost impossible to be in the hunt for a championship year in and year out.
Any pitcher signed for big bucks can be a disaster, but Lee is a pretty good gamble. I don’t believe he has a history of arm injuries, certainly not recently. He’s very efficient in terms of pitch count. He has incredible control that should allow him, worst case, to be Jamie Moyer (in his 30s), even if he loses velocity.
Most Yankee fans are living in a fantasy world where money is no object. The Yankees don’t have a budget, they can afford to throw out $90m on Burnett and then bury him, they have to pay Jeter for what he has meant (past tense, and he was hardly underpaid) to the team and blah blah blah.
The Yankees have $2 billion in debt and, in case no one has noticed, we are still going through an economic crisis caused by overleveraging of companies and states (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy). As a result the debt market is more difficult with much less liquidity and with much higher costs. Hal Steinbrenner knows this and that if he keeps entering into long-term contracts that don’t make sense on the field the Yankees could ultimately face very serious financial diffuculties. Try to imagine in the near future an old, expensive Yankee team out of contention in June with a consequent reduction in attendence, viewers and, most importantly, revenues.
Lee is a great pitcher, but so was Kevin Brown until the last couple of years of his contract (which the Yankees politely took off the hands of the Dodgers). If the Yankees don’t make room for youth at some point the doomsday scenario will become more and more likely.
Steve, I think the fundamental question here is what you view as the short and mid-term future of the team. In my view the window on this Yankees team is closing fast, and in 2-3 years Jeter may be cooked, Arod a complete sink, and we’ll be dealing with aging Tex, CC, and Cano even moving out of his prime a bit. This team IS built to win now, and I’d say spare no cost on Lee, try to win those next two and then accept that the team may need some rebuilding after that. Besides there will still be plenty of space for the young pitchers–even if Pettite comes back no one expects it to be for more than 1 year, and injuries to a staff with that much age would be inevitable.
In two to three years, Jeter *may* be cooked? Did you not watch the 2010 season?
Is it risky betting on a 32 year old pitcher over the long run? Yeah. Is it risky betting on pitching prospects? Double yeah.
I agree the young arms in the farm system should get a shot, but are any of them big league ready for 2011? Andy is on his way out, if not this year, then soon. While the 3 remaining years on AJ Burnett’s contract feels like a long time, it could easily take that long for one of the young arms to develop.
I don’t know, perhaps the Yankees debt situation really limits their spending. But signing Lee doesn’t seem to preclude giving your prospects a chance to develop.
I agree the young arms in the farm system should get a shot, but are any of them big league ready for 2011?
Joba is. How’s that looking?
But signing Lee doesn’t seem to preclude giving your prospects a chance to develop.
How has that worked out the last few years? And with Cashman’s “youth” movement? Instead we’ve gotten the likes of Gaudin, Ponson, Mosley, Mitre…
Signing Lee, and the love affair with Hughes, means there will be one open slot in the years ahead. Herking and jerking pitchers around shows exactly the results in Yankee eyes – a place in middle relief. Joba says hello.
Tell you what? Get Cliff Lee, win the WS in 2011 and 2012, and then obsess about how the Yanks have mortgaged the future and need to get younger.
at 31 , a 5 year deal with option for 6 sound good
team him up with cc ,phil not many teams could match that 3
One advantage to sign Cliff Lee is Yankees will never against him! Yankees have to sign Cliff Lee or a same level guy, otherwise, I do not think Yankees can win the division title or even join the playoffs. Phil Hughes has it own problems, his value will be much limited if he can not develop a few effective strikeout weapons. Joba is not reliable if he does not know where his fastball will be located at. AJ’s major problem is he has lost the confidence. Andy is old. Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre are just two pieces of junks. Dustin and Ivan are average, Logan has problems with against right-hand hitters. MO is old.
“You give a 31-year-old lefty a five- or six-year deal, you are, unless blessed, going to get five years of 2.98 ERAs. You might not get five years of 3.50.”
Guessing you meant “aren’t…going to get five years…”
Anyway, a five-year deal for Lee might not be disastrous. But I am all for a youth movement, especially after seeing Bumgarner’s gem vs. the Rangers.
Leave Lee where he is or where he wants to go, we don’t want him as a Yankee.
[...] Study Groupers and I have counseled for the past six weeks or more, there are many reasons to be wary of going seven years on any pitcher, let alone Cliff Lee. While Brian Cashman’s next move [...]
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