Let’s face it, there’s no real drama left in the regular season for the New York Yankees. With just 22 games left to play, the closest team that could eliminate from from the playoffs (the White Sox, who are now a half-game ahead of the Red Sox in second place in the Wild Card race), is eight games back in the loss column. Sure the Yankees could miss the playoffs, but they won’t.
Looking toward the postseason, the Yankees have some major concerns about their starting rotation, but Steve has already done good work on that topic, and there’s only so much the Yankees can do beyond massaging the seven contenders for those four spots and hoping someone behind CC Sabathia enters October on a hot streak.
I do have one bit of news to break to you all on that front, however: A.J. Burnett will be in the postseason rotation.
Think about it. Even if Andy Pettitte picks up right where he left off upon being activated (which could happen as soon as five days from now as Pettitte is making a rehab start in Game Two of the Double-A Trenton Thunder’s current playoff series today), the Yankees still have two spots in their postseason rotation to fill behind lefties Sabathia and Pettitte. Of the five candidates for those two spots, only one has taken his turn every time he was healthy enough to do so this season, and that’s Burnett. Javy Vazquez has been twice pulled from the rotation. Phil Hughes has been skipped twice (or will be when Dustin Moseley takes his turn on Sunday, pushing Hughes’ back Wednesday) due to an approaching innings limit. Moseley has been a mere fill-in for Pettitte and now Hughes, and Ivan Nova is a rookie with just four major league starts under his belt. No matter how poorly Burnett has pitched, he’s been back out there five days later, the only exception coming when back spasms pushed A.J. back three extra days in early August. The Yankees might use Vazquez, Hughes, Moseley, or even Nova out of the pen. The might even leave any one of those pitchers off the playoff roster altogether, but Burnett will be in the postseason rotation, for better or worse. Count on it.
As for that fourth spot, Brian Cashman told YES’s Jack Curry on Tuesday that Ivan Nova wasn’t really being considered, but with Vazquez struggling again in his return to the rotation on Saturday, Hughes clearly tiring (even if he won’t admit it or doesn’t realize it), and Dustin Moseley being, well, Dustin Moseley, doesn’t Nova have to enter the discussion, particularly after his performance on Wednesday?
Sure, he was facing the Orioles, who are not a good hitting team, and yes that was only his fourth major league start, but the Yankees aren’t going to have a dominant fourth starter no matter whom they choose, and Nova has been able to keep the Yankees in the game in each of his starts thus far, the last three of which ended in New York victories. I’m not saying Nova should be in the postseason rotation right now, but given his solid 3.32 ERA and 2.67 K/BB in four starts, he should absolutely be in the discussion. (That said, he very likely is. I suspect Cashman was playing coy with Curry. He did tell Curry he didn’t want to put that kind of pressure on the kid after just three major league starts, and I suspect his publicly keeping Nova’s name out of the discussion for now is for that reason alone.)
Beyond the postseason rotation, the big news of late has been injury related. Alex Rodriguez and Lance Berkman are back and both have brought their bats with them (Alex is 5-for-12 since being activated, Berkman is 8-for-18). The doctors scanned Jorge Posada’s head and found nothing, though he’s still dealing with concussion-like symptoms after being hit by a foul-tip in Tuesday night’s game. Alfredo Aceves, meanwhile, will not return this season (which could be good news if he takes this opportunity to have successful back surgery that could restore him to full strength for next year), and Damaso Marte is unlikely to, either.
Per LoHud’s Brian Heyman, Marte is dealing with “some sort of labrum issue” in his pitching shoulder and “feels he’s just at 40 percent.” Said Marte, “I don’t know what I have in my shoulder. I feel sore.” Marte isn’t ruling out a return for the postseason, but based on that, I’m ruling it out for him.
Upon hearing that news, I thought, “oh, well there’s not much to write about right now, but I could take this occasion to wrap up the Marte/Xavier Nady trade.” Then I realized Marte is signed for another year with an option for 2012. ¡Ay, caramba!
In actuality, the Yankees’ return from the Pirates in that trade ran out when Xavier Nady, who was acquired with Marte at the 2008 trading deadline, underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery in mid-2009. The Yankees declined Marte’s 2009 option after the 2008 season prior to resigning him for $12 million over the next three seasons, and Nady became a free agent after the ’09 season.
Despite posting a 5.40 ERA and walking ten men in 18 1/3 innings, Marte was worth about a half a win to the Yankees in the final two months of the 2008 seaosn according to WXRL (Baseball Prospectus’s cumulative win-expectancy-based stat for relief pitchers), while Nady was worth just shy of a win according to BP’s WARP (wins above replacement player, which combines hitting, fielding, and baserunning). For that win and a half, which wasn’t enough to lift the Yankees into the postseason, the Yankees gave up a trio of marginal 25-year-old righties and struggling 19-year-old outfield prospect Jose Tabata. Here’s what those four team-controlled players have produced for the Pirates since (using WARP and a combination WXRL and SNLVAR, which is essentially WXRL for starting pitchers)
| Player | POS | Games | |
| Ross Ohlendorf | SP | 55 | 6.100 SNLVAR |
| Jose Tabata | OF | 78 | 2.800 WARP |
| Jeff Karstens | SP/RP | 73 | 2.367 SNLVAR+WXRL |
| Daniel McCutchen | SP/RP | 27 | 0.595 SNVLAR+WXRL |
| Total | 11.862 wins above replacement |
I’m comparing two-plus seasons to two months here, but then that’s what the Yankees gave up in making that deal, multiple team-controlled years for a short-term fix that didn’t work. The caveat is that the Yankees needed to clear space on their 40-man roster and in their system in advance of that December’s Rule 5 draft. Then again, the players they added to the roster that November were righties Steven Jackson, Anthony Claggett, and Christian Garcia and lefty Michael Dunn, none of whom are still in the organization and who combined for 6 2/3 innings with the major league team before their respective departures (Garcia was released earlier this year after requiring a second Tommy John surgery, Jackson and Claggett, curiously, each ended up with the Pirates via waivers, Dunn, it could be reasoned, netted Boone Logan in the Javier Vazquez deal, so that’s something).
Of course, the real question is, would any of these guys really have gotten a chance to play for the Yankees? I’m not convinced. Given the Yankees rotation situation, Ohlendorf, who has posted a 3.98 ERA in 50 starts for the Bucs the last two years, looks compelling, but he’s hardly a lost gem, and he’s easily been the best of the three pitchers in the deal. As for Tabata, he looks a lot like a less athletic Austin Jackson (read: average without much power or patience), and with Tabata’s attitude and personal problems and Jackson still in the pipe, I didn’t have any problem dealing him then and still don’t.
As for Marte’s ensuing three-year, $12 million deal, here’s what I wrote when he signed it:
I would have understood if the Yankees had picked up Marte’s [$6 million] option, using him as a hedge against coming set-up man Mark Melancon or against a second look at lefty Phil Coke in the major league pen. I would have understood a two year deal at a reduced salary, which would have allowed the team to trade Marte either at the deadline or next winter. Three years plus an option? That I don’t get. Not when the option would be for Marte’s age-37 season. Not given that bit of elbow trouble in August. Not given all of the pitching already in the Yankee system.
Well, two-thirds of the way through that deal, Marte has thrown a grand total of 31 regular season innings with a 6.39 ERA and has cost the team a half a win relative to a replacement-level pitcher with negative WXRLs in both seasons.
However, Marte also retired all 12 batters he faced in the 2009 ALCS and World Series, arguably triggering the “flags fly forever” exception in his player evaluation protocol. The question then becomes, how big were those outs?
Well, five of them came in games the Yankees lost. Four more came with a four-run lead in the eighth inning, a low-leverage situation, even if he was facing the heart of the Phillies order. He retired Ryan Howard for the third out while protecting a two-run lead in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series. That wasn’t nothing, but the lead wasn’t in danger, either. He struck out Chase Utley with two men on base to end a threat in the seventh inning of Game 6. That wasn’t nothing, either, but again he had an extra run to work with.
As it turns out, Marte got an out with the tying or winning run on base or at the plate just once in the 2009 postseason, that coming in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Angels when he retired home-run threat Kendry Morales with no one on base in the 12th inning of a tie game. Every out is important, but Marte only got one that could arguably be said to have been crucial to the Yankees title run. That’s not worth a three-year deal at any price and neither was, nor is, Damaso Marte, who we’ll unfortunately still be talking about next year in his age-36 season.





Cliff, I agree with 95% of what you are saying. It was a terrible trade and, ironically, at the time the sporting press was unanimous in saying that the Yankees had gotten a steal.
I, however, do not concur with your dismissal of Tabata and Ohlendorf and believe that both would have been great improvements over their counterparts on the current Yankees, Austin Kearns and Dustin Moseley.
Tabata is only 22 years old, is batting .306 with an OPS of .767 in his first try at the major leagues when he was expected to struggle mightily. His slugging is only .410, but there is at least some reason to believe that will improve going forward. The same cannot be said for Kearns who at 30 years old has an OPS of .729 with the Yankees and is slugging only .379 with them. And it appears that he will not be able to even keep that up as those numbers are out of line with the last couple of years of his career (.627 in 2008, .641 in 2009). He is currently mired in a long slump and his playing time has been cut drastically.
Ohlendorf may not be a lost gem, but he is a reliable starter and seems to be improving (3.02 ERA in his last 10 starts). In my opinion, Ohlendorf, who deals at up to 95, would be a strong candidate to start in the playoffs and instead we get to look forward to the possibility of Dustin Moseley in a key game.
Neither player is all-star caliber this year (we shall see with Tabata in future years), but both could have been valuable contributors to the team this year.
I don’t disagree, Jeffrey, though you have to correct for Ohlendorf’s competition to a certain degree. He’s pitching not only in the National League, but in a division chock full of poor teams. I’d rather have Ohlendorf than Moseley, sure, but I’m not convinced with the Yankees’ roster and pitching crunches that he would have been able to justify the roster spot, rotation spot, or opportunity long enough to establish himself in New York the way he has in Pittsburgh.
As for Tabata, I was never particularly keen on him. He always struck me as a tweener outfielder who hit for empty averages and, though he’s still very young, he has yet to emerge as more than that. But then I didn’t think Robinson Cano was anything when he was in the minors, either.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, I was lukewarm on the trade at best at the time, unconcerned about what the Yankees gave up, but also unenthusiastic about what they got (note that I wrote that before Karstens and McCutchen were subbed for Phil Coke and George Kontos).
I agree that fatigue has been Hughes’s primary problem, along with his insistence on throwing mostly fastball and cutters, thereby enabling hitters to gear up for hard stuff and not worry much about being fooled by offspeed pitches.
I also think Nova should be considered for the rotation in the playoffs.
It will be interesting to see if AJ continues to pitch poor enough to lose his spot.
[...] playoff run, they won’t have Damaso Marte. Today at the Pinstriped Bible, Cliff Corcoran dispatches the idea that Marte was a revelation last year in the playoffs. He got only one out with the tying or [...]
I hope the Yankees don’t pull a Ted Lilly and use up all of Nova’s options, then dump him out of impatience for minimal returns, only to watch him have a nice respectable career elsewhere. The Yankees got Jeff Weaver for Lilly, then traded Weaver for Kevin Brown, and we all know how all that turned out.
By the way, I’m not buying all these new statistics about wins above replacement and UZR and all that. I think they’re garbage, and I don’t care how many baseball nerds who couldn’t swing a bat well enough to start in Little League back them up. Sorry, I’m not sold. Someone please write an article of the pros and cons of these new statistics.
I’m not sure “wins above replacement” stats are all that new. WARP and VORP are a good decade or more old, and Bill James laid the groundwork for that stuff in the ’80s. That said, I’m not a big believer in Fangraphs WAR either, in part because of the shortcomings of UZR. Perhaps a comparison of the lot would make a good offseason topic for a slow news day/week, but in the meantime bear in mind that we try to use these advanced stats in appropriate situations and to appropriate degrees here. The stats inform and we interpret that information, but all numbers require context and interpretation.
Nice commentary as usual Cliff. A couple of comments from a longtime Yankee fan living in Pittsburgh – the Pirates seem to have gotten the better of this deal, but I’m not sure any of the players traded by the Yankees would have had much of an impact with them, other than Ohlendorf, who would have remained in the bullpen where he’s best suited. Tabata has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates but he doesn’t hit for power and has a below average arm that really only plays in left field. If he was still with the Yankees, he would have been blocked in AAA. The other pitchers are simply 4A at best. The trade was made for all the right reasons, but just didn’t work out all that well for the Yankees.
[...] Nova to take the ball in the postseason; at the very least, his performance (2.92 ERA, .562 SNWP) merits [...]
Injuries often determine the value of trades. Xavier Nady’s injury may have determined this one. Nady was having a breakout season, where if he continued that level of performance, he might have made a nice starting outfielder for the Yanks. Instead he got Dr. Frank Jobe’s famous procedure, and we got Nick Swisher playing everyday.
What can you say about that one? I can say Nick has been better than what I would expect from even a cresting Nady, and oddly enough, the injury worked in the Yanks favor rather than against.
[...] Marte’s surgery, which repaired a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, was far more severe and is expected to keep him out of action until the final months of the 2011 season, thus solidifying the bust status of the three-year, $12 million contract he signed after the 2008 season (the Yankees hold an option for 2012, but are sure to decline it). For a more in-depth look at Marte’s time in pinstripes, see my previous post on the subject here. [...]