CC Sabathia: Power-Pitching Megafauna (AP)
I really should stop being amazed by CC Sabathia, but you have to understand that I lived through Ed Whitson, who for you folks that are younger than me was kind of the first version of Carl Pavano. Pavano was apparently physically incapable of pitching well in New York; Whitson was emotionally incapable. Whitson was the pitcher who gave birth to the notion that some pitchers “just can’t” succeed in New York because of the pressure. It would seem to be untrue in 95 percent of cases, particularly when the pitcher in question is left-handed, 28 years old, and can throw a marshmallow through a steel girder, or vice-versa. Sabathia is a unique mastodon of a man, and as such far removed from junk dealers like Whitson and Andy Hawkins and good ol’ Dave LaPoint.
Sabathia earned his league-leading 19th victory with this afternoon’s eight innings of one-hit ball against the A’s. This was wholly unfair, given the sorry state of Oakland’s offense, watching Sabathia toy with them was like watching Garry Kasparov play chess against a recently-lobotomized woodchuck. Still, in winning his 19th and thereby taking a three-victory lead over teammate Phil Hughes and the Rays’ David Price, Sabathia continued to keep his name at the forefront of the Cy Young Award discussion, but whether you think he deserves to be called the frontrunner depends on how much you value wins as an indicator of pitching quality.
Sabathia has had an excellent season, but before we consider wins, take a look at his league rankings in other indicators of pitching quality:
Innings: second, with 202.2 (1: Felix Hernandez, 211.1).
ERA: sixth, with 3.02 (1: Clay Buchholz, 2.21).
WHIP: Not in top ten with 1.20 (1: Cliff Lee, 1.03).
Strikeouts: seventh, with 165 (1: Jared Weaver and Felix Hernandez tied, 200).
K/9: Not in top ten with 7.3 (1: Brandon Morrow, 10.9).
I could go on, but the point would remain the same: Sabathia is having a very good year, but not, by the standards of his peers, a great one. There is a lot of good pitching going on. There are two pitchers in particular who can make a strong case that they’re having better seasons than Sabathia, Seattle’s Hernandez and Boston’s Buchholz. Let us dispose of Buchholz first. Aside from his league-leading ERA, he has gone 15-5. Due to a hamstring injury, Buchholz missed about a month, and that has contributed to his doing much less pitching (146.2 innings) than either Sabathia or Hernandez, and that counts. In addition, his pitching, as good as it has been, is less dependent on strikeouts than on inducing grounders and limiting batting average on balls in play—batters are averaging only .258 when they make contact. There is nothing wrong with this, and the artistry of a pitcher who induces poor contact is just as legitimate a path to success as burning the Big Express past the batters at 150 mph, but in discussing Sabathia and Hernandez, we have pitchers who can do both.
Back in the halcyon days of 1987, when I was young fellow and my thoughts turned to—never mind, family site—Nolan Ryan had a terrific season for the Astros. He led the National League in ERA and strikeouts, and in a season without a 20-game winner, that should have meant something. Regrettably, the Astros scored only 3.3 runs a game for Nolan, so he went 8-16 and tied for second in the league in losses. He finished a distant fifth in a confused Cy Young vote that saw the award go to Phillies closer Steve Bedrosian.
Felix Hernandez is experiencing a similar season to Ryan’s. His record is 10-10, but he hasn’t pitched like a .500 pitcher. He has made a quality start in a spectacular 90% of his appearances, meaning that with just a little offensive support he would have hit 20 wins some time ago. His biggest failing was choosing to have this excellent season for a team that may well have the worst offense in history. He’s getting all of 3.2 runs a game of help. The Astros gave Nolan Ryan 73 percent of an average amount of support. Hernandez is getting 71percent.
But put all of that aside, put the names and records aside, and just take a blind taste test. Which of these pitchers is having the better season?
| IP | H | BB | K | HR | ERA | |
| Brand A | 202.2 | 178 | 65 | 165 | 17 | 3.02 |
| Brand B | 211.1 | 174 | 56 | 200 | 14 | 2.38 |
There is really no objective way to say that Brand A, Sabathia, is having a better year but for the wins that 6.2 runs per game, or 138 percent of average support, have brought him. Sabathia has pitched quite well, but those Ws don’t show it—it’s every other aspect of his record. The same is true of Hernandez.
You can, if you like, give Sabathia extra credit for being the staff ace of (what will almost certainly be) a postseason team, of being the sole reliable starter on that team. I do. I’m not certain, though, if that bit of extra credit carries him past Hernandez, not to mention Buchholz, and a large group that includes Trevor Cahill, C.J. Wilson, David Price, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, and Gio Gonzalez, all pitchers who have, in qualitative terms, done about as well as Sabathia, some under equally stressful conditions. There is a month to play, and the race remains wide open.
For more on the awards races, check out Cliff’s regular SI feature MLB Awards Watch.
There is not much of a race for the Cy Young Award for best pitcher. CC is in the lead by a comfortable margin. Of course, I know that King Felix has been better. I’m just talking about how the BBWAA voters will vote. Buchholtz’s lower innings are significant, and his BABIP suggest he’s been a bit lucky. FIP says he’s no better than CC and he’s pitched less innings. King Felix may be the actually King on the mound, but when it comes to the Cy Young voting, CC will be the King left standing.
C.C. also pitches in a division that is a bit tougher on pitchers
“Recently lobomitized woodchuck” made me LOL.
I take from your analysis that this isn’t the year that the voters reward the Great Rivera for his remarkable career by throwing him a CYA-shaped bone?
There are only three ways I think you can argue that CC deserves the Cy Young more than Hernandez:
1. Park. Hernandez pitches in an acknowledged pitchers’ haven, while the New Yankee Stadium seems to have a reputation as neutral to slightly hitter-friendly. I don’t know how much this narrows the gap–I leave it to the researchers to estimate it.
2. Defense. People say that Seattle has a really good defense, mostly in the outfield but also at certain infield positions. In BP’s FRAA the Yankees rank higher but maybe there are other ways in which Hernandez benefits from better fielding.
3. The Yankees are winners. If you think that the Cy Young is an MVP award for pitchers, and you also think that to win such an award your team needs to be good, then I can’t argue with you. There’s no agreement on this stuff and Baseball doesn’t want there to be any. Otherwise there’d be no arguments. To me personally, though, the award should be purely about pitching performance, in no way influenced by who has Robinson Cano vs Chone Figgins.
Of course, if CC wins it I won’t complain. I’m a huge homer too.
I tend to agree with you, particularly with regards to park effects. That said, I wonder what happens when you look at advanced metrics that factor out park and defense?
I looked up their SIERAs, and King Felix is still ahead, 3.18 to 3.81 for CC, but not #1; that’s Jered Weaver, followed by Liriano, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Morrow before you get to Felix.
xFIP has Liriano at 3.02 (best in AL), Cliff Lee, then King Felix (3.26), then a whole bunch of people (including Gavin Floyd(!)) before you get to CC (3.85).
WAR and WARP, which I believe also take out park and defense, have Liriano, Lee, Felix, 4 others, then CC (FanGraphs); Felix, 5 others, CC (b-r.com); Felix, 2 others, the Great Mo(!), 2 others, CC (BP).
In other words, I think you can probably make a fair argument for CC, but if the season ended today, the best AL pitcher has almost certainly been King Felix.
While King Felix is indeed phenomenal, one stat is missing from his line: meaningful games pitched in.
How many times has his garnering a “W” instead of an “L” had CONSEQUENCES?
Matters to me.
4. Felix doesn’t pitch in the AL East.
this…
CC has made 11 starts against teams over .500, 18 against teams under .500.
Sometimes I think it’s easy to overlook why you play the game when you get too heavy into all of the different statistical measures of player performance, and that’s to win.
Looking at win/loss records for pitchers or RBI numbers for hitters loses a lot of the context of the team around the player, but it does keep in mind if your team won and keeps a tally of the one statistic (runs scored) a team can’t win without.
I’d have no problem with CC winning the Cy Young award.
Building off of TommyDee’s point, I would think CC faces stronger teams and offenses than Hernandez. Perhaps that’s a factor why CC’s Batting Average against and ERA is higher?
love the Kasparov-woodchuck simile, Steve!
Steve,
There was only one thing in your column that I wanted to question: the Ed Whitson reference. Granted that Ed played ten years or so earlier, I always thought that Kenny Rogers was the original poster-child for players who were great before coming to the Yanks; totally choked while with us; then returned to their former greatness, as soon as they left. I’ve even heard plenty of people over the years, refer to the phenomenon as “Kenny Rogers Syndrom.” In fact, I’d completely forgotten about Whitson, until your column tweaked my memory. Do you really consider him the first, and/or primary, example of that routine?
Whitson was a sensitive fellow who grabbed the big Yankee dollars and wilted under the pressures of the New York tabloids, a temperamentally opposite manager in the fiery Billy Martin, and an impatient and blustery owner at the peak of his meddlesomeness in King George. It all ended badly – Whitson couldn’t pitch at home due to the hostile crowd, punched out Martin and then got his ticket punched back to San Diego, where he found success again and won the NL ERA title. Whitson, not Rogers, is Exhibit A for the proposition that some people are not meant to play in New York for the Yankees.
[...] various hunts, and yesterday, Steve examined the biggest dog of ‘em all, CC Sabathia, in his quest for the AL Cy Young award. Meanwhile, Cliff has been keeping tabs on the various awards races [...]
One of the reasons I read the PinBib is the intelligent writing. Where else would you see the word ‘encomium’? Thanks Steve.
Hey Steve,
Just wanted to say thanks for the big words like “encomiums” and “halcyon.” I’m currently studying for the GREs and vocab is my weak point. Those two words were on my study list so I actually had a chance to see them in usage. Keep up the big words!
And about the column, you’re right. And of course everyone here who says C.C. will undoubtedly win it is also right. Can you say 2005 Bartolo Colon?