September Call-Up-Orama

Chad Moeller: You could say the Yankees called up Moel over Beethoven, if only Beethoven was in the Yankees' system. (AP)

When rosters expanded to 40 on September 1, the Yankees summoned Jonathan Albaladejo (E-I-E-I-O), Greg Golson, and Chad Moeller from the minor leagues, but chose to leave other members of the 40-man roster to roost in the minors (at least until their respective seasons end). Why were only three players called? Who will be coming up soon to help with the stretch drive? Who isn’t coming at all? Let’s take a look.

Who’s at the Party

Jonathan Albaladejo, RHP, Triple-A Scranton: It’s no small wonder Albaladejo was brought up immediately; he has transformed himself beyond recognition from his spring training self. As Jay Jaffe noted, Albaledejo had an abomination of a spring and looked like one of the top candidates to get designated for assignment if there was a roster crunch. After he posted that 33.75 ERA, though, he went to Triple-A and got to work on his four-seamer, which has been his bread and butter. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed from 6.50 per nine last year in Triple-A to 11.65 per nine this season, and he has a sterling 4.56 strikeout to walk ratio. He does have an extremely friendly .266 batting average on balls in play, but when you strike out as many batters as he has and keep your walks plus hits per inning pitched at 0.88, chances are you’re going to get some weak hacks from defensive batters.

This is Alba’s last option year, so the Yankees will have to decide if the improvements the righty has made are real. If the Puerto Rican keeps chugging along at his current place, you can bet that the Yankees will find a spot for him next year. As for this season, if he is lights-out down the stretch, the Yankees might try to Frankie Rodriguez him into the playoffs.

Greg Golson, OF, Triple-A Scranton: When rosters are limited to 25 players, teams don’t have the luxury of carrying someone simply because they double as jackrabbits. Former Phillies first-round pick Golson came to the Yankees via the Texas Rangers for minor-league infielder Mitch Hilligoss. Since arriving, he has mainly been stored in Scranton, though he did make a cameo appearance in the Bronx and picked up a couple of hits. Put simply, he’s in the Bronx for pinch-running and defensive duties to give the regulars some breathers and the Yankees a chance to put a runner in scoring position in tight contests.

Golson’s major problem has always been strikeouts; he has horrid pitch recognition, though he has made some strides in that department. Even so, he had 99 punch-outs in 415 plate appearances in Scranton, so it’s still an issue. He also doesn’t reach base much—he had a .313 on-base percentage in Triple-A—so his .263 batting average contains a lot of empty calories. I doubt that the Yankees will keep him beyond the season, though there is the slight possibility they sneak him onto a playoff roster to play—well, run—the role Freddy Guzman had in 2009.

Chad Moeller, C, Triple-A Scranton: This just makes sense. The Yankees have a 39-year-old catcher in Jorge Posada, who needs time off the barking knees (and possibly feet and right shoulder), and giving him plenty of rest to make sure he stays healthy enough to hit will be key to the team surviving deep into October. Francisco Cervelli has been doing a major portion of the catching duties and has taken more than his fair share of foul tips, so giving the energetic backstop some time off certainly couldn’t hurt. Moeller is a warm body to stick behind the dish who can handle a pitching staff. I know, it’s not Jesus Montero, but there’s a reason for that, as I’ve explained before: Moeller can be designated for assignment after the season with no harm done, but Montero would have to be put on the roster before he is required to be, and would have to be exposed to waivers to take him off. The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand confirmed my reasoning several weeks later, and it makes sense, since there was nearly zero chance the Yankees could manage to smuggle the slugger onto the playoff roster anyway.

Moeller won’t hit much, or get on base much. Heck, he won’t slug much. But he’ll do as a stopgap and inning absorber, earning a big-league salary to take a big-league beating late in games to spare the Yankees’ top two catchers. He has already proved to be valuable after Posada got tossed for arguing balls and strikes, and that’s the sort of role the Yankees are hoping he will fulfill (minus the coming-in-for-ejections part).

Who’s Late to the Party

Colin Curtis, OF, Triple-A Scranton: Outfield depth is handy to have, and Curtis is probably the minor-league outfielder on the team who has the best tools for a major-league future. Never great in the minor leagues, Colin blossomed in the Arizona Fall League.  The AFL is a hitter’s league, no question, but Curtis has continued to play well this season, so it looks like he has turned a corner and could someday be someone’s fourth outfielder. Though the lefty isn’t bashing the ball over the wall like he did in Arizona, he does have 23 doubles in only 234 at-bats, a very solid number.

Curtis’s is an awesome story, as he survived testicular cancer and has fought his way up through the system to reach the majors. During interleague play, he did a very nice job pinch-hitting. His best moment came against the Angels on July 21. After Brett Gardner was tossed with an 0-2 count for arguing balls and strikes, Curtis came to the dish and walloped his first career jack into the right-field stands on the first pitch he saw off the bench. He’s a much better hitter than Golson, so perhaps the Yankees will look to use him off the bench in the playoffs.

Chad Huffman, OF, Triple-A Scranton: A waiver wire claim from the San Diego Padres, Huffman also got his first taste of the major leagues this season. He has more home-run power than Curtis does, and the Houston native has put up a .276/.355/.403 year in Scranton. Those numbers don’t translate to big future in the majors beyond fourth- or fifth-outfielderdom, but it’s something. However, the Bombers may well cut bait with the righty at the end of the season because of the need for Rule 5 roster spots. At that level of production, he’s replaceable.

Juan Miranda, 1B, Triple-A Scranton: Of the hitters who will be called up in September, Miranda is the one with the greatest chance to make an impact with his bat. There is no doubt that the maybe-27-year-old Cuban has mashability, and bringing up someone who can pinch-hit for, say, Cervelli, and get a double or homer definitely has its value.

However, this is the Yankees’ fourth option year for Miranda. After this season, they must keep him on the roster or lose him to free agency. As his true age is up for debate and his production isn’t spectacular for a first baseman, he’ll probably be allowed to leave while the Yanks scour minor-league free agents and their own farm system to find his replacement at Triple-A. Miranda could be useful at the major-league level if a team were to platoon him as a designated hitter with someone who crushes lefties; Miranda’s minor-league split against righties is .303/.395/.549.

Kevin Russo, INF, Triple-A Scranton: With Ramiro Pena already slotted in as the utility infielder, Russo is sticking in Scranton for now. After riding the big-league pine for two months and seeing little action, he needs the extra ABs before coming back for more inactivity. Russo had some trouble getting back in the swing of things when he was sent down, so the Yankees are looking to make sure he doesn’t rust over before they call him up.

Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Triple-A Scranton: Sanchez isn’t in New York right now because he’s on the seven-day minor-league disabled list with an arm injury. When he’s off the DL and has rehabbed a bit, expect him to pack his bags for the Bronx.

Who’s Not Invited…Yet (or not coming)

Alfredo Aceves, RHP, A Hospital to be Named Later: Aceves has been struggling through his rehab assignment as he attempts to come back from a back injury. Last night, he was scratched from a rehab appearance in Trenton and sent back to New York to check in with a doctor. It doesn’t look like he’ll be in the Bronx in the near future—well, maybe in a warm-up jersey.

Andrew Brackman, RHP, Double-A Trenton: I list the jumbo righty here for a couple of reasons. One, he hasn’t pitched above Double-A. Two, he has nearly 30 more innings pitched than last season. The Yankees can’t afford to give him an opportunity to get hurt at the major-league level when he is already older than his Double-A competition and needs to move up to Triple-A next season. He will probably be shut down after Trenton’s run through the playoffs.

Reegie Corona, INF, Triple-A Scranton: It has been a rough year for Corona, as he couldn’t put bat to ball at all while he was healthy, and now he’s down for the year with a broken arm.

Wilkin De La Rosa, LHP, Double-A Trenton: No way. The southpaw showed tons of potential when he broke out last year in Trenton as a converted pitcher, but this season, he has been smacked around regularly while repeating the level. His strikeout to walk ratio is horrible (55/41), and his WHIP stands at 1.72. Sure, a .339 BABIP is bad, but a pitcher also has to try to prevent putting runners on. De La Rosa is most definitely not major-league ready.

Jesus Montero, C, Triple-A Scranton: I just had to say it again to make it super-official.

Hector Noesi, RHP, Triple-A Scranton: Noesi has barely arrived in Triple-A; let’s let him collect his bearings before dumping big-leaguers on him. He only has one start at his new level, and he has nearly 40 more innings pitched than he did last season. The Bombers will likely pull the plug on his season when Scranton’s playoff run is over because of the major innings increase.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Blue Jays V

Catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should fit right in on this Blue Jays team which is first in the majors in homers and 23rd in walks. (AP)

These two teams just met two weeks ago, so there’s not much that needs to be said here. The Jays took two of three from the Yankees in that series in Toronto, but were outscored on the series as the Yankees ripped into Marc Rzepczynski and Brian Tallet in the middle game scoring 11 runs in six innings against the two with the aid of five home runs. In the opener, Brandon Morrow struck out a dozen Yankees as the Jays squeaked out a 3-2 win via an eighth-inning Jose Bautista homer off David Robertson in Ivan Nova’s first major league start. In the closer, Phil Hughes got bounced early while Brett Cecil cruised and the Jays won 6-3. With the exception of Javier Vazquez taking over for Dustin Moseley in the middle game, the pitching matchups repeat in this series (more on those below).

Since then the Jays have split a four-game set with the Tigers and dropped two of three to the Rays, which is exactly what you’d expect them to do. Lyle Overbay and Yunel Escobar have been out of action recently with head and back injuries. Overbay, who developed concussion-like symptoms a few days after colliding with big Brian Tallet in the Yankee series (but doesn’t actually have a concussion) is likely to remain out at least to start this weekend’s three-game set. Escobar is more likely to return as early as this afternoon (all three games of this series start at 1:05). The Jays have also lost Edwin Encarnacion to a sprained wrist and have actually been using Bautista at third base on occasion in his absence.

So far the Jays have called up just one minor leaguer in September, that being catching prospect J.P. Arencibia, who hit .301/.359/.626 with 32 homers in a repeat of Triple-A this year at age 24, though it’s worth noting the Jays’  Triple-A affiliate is now Las Vegas, so Arencibia was in an extremely friendly hitting environment. Still, he has a ton of power. In his three full minor league seasons, Arencibia has hit 80 home runs while drawing 79 unintentional walks. He’ll fit right in with this team.

Ivan Nova vs. Brandon Morrow (Friday, September 3, 1:05, YES)

Ivan Nova’s first major league start was encouraging. His second (5 2/3 innings of one run ball with seven strikeouts against the contending White Sox) was impressive. His major league line is now a similarly impressive 14 IP, 15 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 11 K. However, Joe Girardi has yet to let Nova reach 90 pitches. I’m very curious to see what Nova can do if allowed to pitch deep into a game. In his first start, which came against these Jays, he was on pace to throw about 109 pitches in eight innings, but got the hook in the sixth after a bit of a dustup involving a close pitch to Jose Bautista, who had homered off Nova earlier in that game for one of the two runs Nova allowed in his 5 1/3 innings.

Morrow has faced the Yankees four times already this season, twice in Toronto, twice in the Bronx. In the two Toronto starts, he has allowed three runs in 13 innings. In the two New York starts, he has allowed ten runs in 11 1/3 innings. The one common denominator for the pitcher with the major’s best strikeout rate (10.9 K/BB) has, of course, been strikeouts. In those 24 1/3 innings, Morrow has struck out 36 Yankees against just six walks. In his last seven starts, two of which came against the Yankees, he is 5-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 63 Ks in 43 1/3 innings. Morrow. After three seasons on being jerked between the rotation and bullpen by the Mariners, Morrow seems to have finally arrived as a dominant starter with the Blue Jays. It’s amazing what a talented pitcher can do once he finds a team willing to just let him pitch. That said, this will be Morrow’s last start of the season as the non-contender Blue Jays are capping his innings at 150.

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filed under: Blue Jays,Series Previews

Encomiums for the Mastodon

CC Sabathia: Power-Pitching Megafauna (AP)

I really should stop being amazed by CC Sabathia, but you have to understand that I lived through Ed Whitson, who for you folks that are younger than me was kind of the first version of Carl Pavano. Pavano was apparently physically incapable of pitching well in New York; Whitson was emotionally incapable. Whitson was the pitcher who gave birth to the notion that some pitchers “just can’t” succeed in New York because of the pressure. It would seem to be untrue in 95 percent of cases, particularly when the pitcher in question is left-handed, 28 years old, and can throw a marshmallow through a steel girder, or vice-versa. Sabathia is a unique mastodon of a man, and as such far removed from junk dealers like Whitson and Andy Hawkins and good ol’ Dave LaPoint.

Sabathia earned his league-leading 19th victory with this afternoon’s eight innings of one-hit ball against the A’s. This was wholly unfair, given the sorry state of Oakland’s offense, watching Sabathia toy with them was like watching Garry Kasparov play chess against a recently-lobotomized woodchuck. Still, in winning his 19th and thereby taking a three-victory lead over teammate Phil Hughes and the Rays’ David Price, Sabathia continued to keep his name at the forefront of the Cy Young Award discussion, but whether you think he deserves to be called the frontrunner depends on how much you value wins as an indicator of pitching quality.

Sabathia has had an excellent season, but before we consider wins, take a look at his league rankings in other indicators of pitching quality:

Innings: second, with 202.2 (1: Felix Hernandez, 211.1).

ERA: sixth, with 3.02 (1: Clay Buchholz, 2.21).

WHIP: Not in top ten with 1.20 (1: Cliff Lee, 1.03).

Strikeouts: seventh, with 165 (1: Jared Weaver and Felix Hernandez tied, 200).

K/9: Not in top ten with 7.3 (1: Brandon Morrow, 10.9).

I could go on, but the point would remain the same: Sabathia is having a very good year, but not, by the standards of his peers, a great one. There is a lot of good pitching going on. There are two pitchers in particular who can make a strong case that they’re having better seasons than Sabathia, Seattle’s Hernandez and Boston’s Buchholz. Let us dispose of Buchholz first. Aside from his league-leading ERA, he has gone 15-5. Due to a hamstring injury, Buchholz missed about a month, and that has contributed to his doing much less pitching (146.2 innings) than either Sabathia or Hernandez, and that counts. In addition, his pitching, as good as it has been, is less dependent on strikeouts than on inducing grounders and limiting batting average on balls in play—batters are averaging only .258 when they make contact. There is nothing wrong with this, and the artistry of a pitcher who induces poor contact is just as legitimate a path to success as burning the Big Express past the batters at 150 mph, but in discussing Sabathia and Hernandez, we have pitchers who can do both.

Back in the halcyon days of 1987, when I was young fellow and my thoughts turned to—never mind, family site—Nolan Ryan had a terrific season for the Astros. He led the National League in ERA and strikeouts, and in a season without a 20-game winner, that should have meant something. Regrettably, the Astros scored only 3.3 runs a game for Nolan, so he went 8-16 and tied for second in the league in losses. He finished a distant fifth in a confused Cy Young vote that saw the award go to Phillies closer Steve Bedrosian.

Felix Hernandez is experiencing a similar season to Ryan’s. His record is 10-10, but he hasn’t pitched like a .500 pitcher. He has made a quality start in a spectacular 90% of his appearances, meaning that with just a little offensive support he would have hit 20 wins some time ago. His biggest failing was choosing to have this excellent season for a team that may well have the worst offense in history. He’s getting all of 3.2 runs a game of help. The Astros gave Nolan Ryan 73 percent of an average amount of support. Hernandez is getting 71percent.

But put all of that aside, put the names and records aside, and just take a blind taste test. Which of these pitchers is having the better season?

IP H BB K HR ERA
Brand A 202.2 178 65 165 17 3.02
Brand B 211.1 174 56 200 14 2.38


There is really no objective way to say that Brand A, Sabathia, is having a better year but for the wins that 6.2 runs per game, or 138 percent of average support, have brought him. Sabathia has pitched quite well, but those Ws don’t show it—it’s every other aspect of his record. The same is true of Hernandez.

You can, if you like, give Sabathia extra credit for being the staff ace of (what will almost certainly be) a postseason team, of being the sole reliable starter on that team. I do. I’m not certain, though, if that bit of extra credit carries him past Hernandez, not to mention Buchholz, and a large group that includes Trevor Cahill, C.J. Wilson, David Price, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, and Gio Gonzalez, all pitchers who have, in qualitative terms, done about as well as Sabathia, some under equally stressful conditions. There is a month to play, and the race remains wide open.

For more on the awards races, check out Cliff’s regular SI feature MLB Awards Watch.

To the Mats with Reader Comments: Francisco Cervelli is Evil

Jorge Posada: Still the man, blast it! (AP)

We tend not to judge backup catchers too harshly around here, since very few teams have one good backstop, let alone two. However, I have to draw the line at this from the comments on my post on Gardner vs. Crawford:

I laughed so hard when I saw the backup catcher bunt better than Gardner. And by the way the reason the Sox are willing to part with Martinez is because he stinks as a catcher ala Posada, they can only hit at this stage in their careers, so Cervelli is your man, I don’t want to hear nonsense about numbers because the only hitting catcher out there is Mauer and he’s a done deal. Just watch the games and see all those passed balls that they keep calling wild pitches! —Jesse

If your starting catcher is going to hit .253/.324/.313 (and falling; over the last three months Cervelli has hit .203/.274/.248 in 149 plate appearances) he’d better be the best defensive catcher in the league by at least 20,000 leagues. That is the only way the defensive benefits might come close to matching the devastating offensive blow received from playing a hitter with such limited ability with the bat. That has not been the case with Cervelli this year. The opposite has been more the case.

Cervelli has thrown out only 16 percent of opposing baserunners. We’ll let the jury remain hung on the passed balls/wild pitch issue, because Cervelli has been charged with only two of the former, and while he undoubtedly deserves some credit for the latter (the difference being largely at the whim of the official scorer), he has also become A.J. Burnett’s regular catcher, and that pairing is going to make the catcher look bad, just as catching Charlie Hough meant that ol’ Geno Petralli was going to have 20 or more passed balls every year. However forgiving we are of the missed balls in the dirt, we have to be just as hard on Cervelli’s throwing and overall error rate. Not only has he failed to catch many runners, but he’s often thrown the ball away when he’s tried to get them. Despite limited playing time, Cervelli ranks second in the AL in catcher’s errors with 10, seven of them coming on throws.

Catcher’s fielding percentages are artificially inflated by the putout they are credited with each time they catch a strikeout. Cervelli’s official percentage is .981, but when he’s actually doing something with the baseball other than receiving it, his fielding percentage is only .861. None of this is to compare Cervelli’s defensive game unfavorably to Jorge Posada’s. Posada has never been a great catcher and at his advanced age he’s not got much left to contribute on D. He’s thrown out about the same number of runners as Cervelli has, and his non-strikeout fielding percentage is actually lower at .841. Compare to Joe Mauer, the reigning AL Gold Glove catcher: he has caught 30 percent of runners and his non-strikeout fielding percentage is .949.

However, unlike Cervelli, Posada still provides solid returns at the plate. The average major-league catcher has hit .250/.320/.383 this year. Cervelli is going to fail to meet that not particularly high-set bar. The vet has hit .271/.383/.514 while wearing the tools of ignorance. Posada has been charged with seven passed balls this year. The Yankees have lost seven total bases to his lack of mobility. Horrors! With 12 home runs as a catcher, he has given the Yankees 48 total bases back right there. They’ve more than come out ahead on the exchange. As you know, Cervelli has all of 73 total bases for the season, with no home runs to date and none likely to come.

By the way: Mauer isn’t the “only hitting catcher” out there, just the best. Consider this list of catchers ranked by overall production, 200 PAs and over. There are 36 catchers that qualify. You will find Posada at #6, Cervelli at #28,  and if you don’t think the Yankees would be better off with any of the guys above him taking a third of the catching time (or whatever fraction Posada is unable to use) next year, you haven’t been paying attention.

Dispatches from the Yankee Clubhouse

A rare sighting of Jonathan Albaladejo in the majors earlier this year. Albaladejo appeared in just two games before being called up with rosters having expanded on Wednesday. (AP)

With the Yankees in their penultimate homestand of the season, I figured I’d better get myself out to the ballpark for both. I’m in the press box tonight and was able to talk to a few players in the clubhouse before batting practice. I’ve essentially already covered Javy Vazquez’s return to the rotation in Dustin Moseley’s spot, which was made official today, so here are some smaller items from elsewhere on the roster.

Brett Gardner

I noticed Gardner out on the field with third-base coach Rob Thomson around 3:30 working on bunting up the third base line, so I asked him if he’s been doing that a lot this year:

“I was for a while. I’d gotten away from it recently. Just with our schedule and stuff it’s hard to do, but it’s a lot easier when we’re at home, so I try to do it once a homestand.”

I also asked him about the condition of his wrist as Gardner was hitting .321/.403/.418 when he was hit in the wrist by a Clayton Kershaw pitch on June 27 and has hit just .233/.369/.325 since:

“It feels good. Occasionally it’s a little tight just because the way I got hit was a bad spot, and it was sore for a little while, but it’s been good.”

Jonathan Albaladejo

Albaladejo was called up today with rosters having expanded after spending essentially all season with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. There he posted a 1.42 ERA, struck out 11.7 men per nine innings against just 2.6 walks (4.56 K/BB) and set an International League record with 43 saves. I asked him if it was frustrating to pitch so well at Triple-A and not get the call despite being on the 40-man roster. He said, “maybe at one point,” but that after a while he didn’t think about it too much and just went about his work of getting hitters out. (Good non-answer, meat.) Asked why he was so much better at that this season, he said he’s been using his four-seam fastball more to get ahead of hitters. In the past, he would start hitters off with his sinker.

“My sinker was moving more than I thought it would be, and it was, ball one, the ball two. Then you gotta go right down the middle and there’s a base hit . . . stuff like that. Now I get ahead and I have more of an idea of what I want to do.”

Albaladejo also said he’s had a better curve ball this year and that has become his number-two pitch behind the four-seamer with the sinker, his former number-one, dropped to third. “I use my sinker once in a while, but not as much as I did last year.”

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Cutting the Legend of Homer Bush Down to Size

As a connoisseur of futility infielders — those versatile glove men who are almost invariably hapless with the stick — I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Homer Bush. His name combines two great colloquialisms related to the national pastime (or, as some have argued, two great national pastimes), and he was a member of the 1998 Yankees, the best ballclub most of us have ever seen.

Homer Bush made the most of his time in pinstripes, though his worth to the team wasn't all that great (AP).

A 25-year-old infielder who was originally drafted by the Padres in 1991, Bush was in his seventh season of beating the bushes when he came to the Yankee organization as a bit player in a six-player trade which sent Ruben Rivera on the outbound train and Hideki Irabu on the inbound . After a late-season cameo in 1997, he spent the entire 1998 season with the Yankees, but appeared in just 45 games. He made the most of his playing time, primarily as Chuck Knoblauch’s understudy and as a late-inning substitute, hitting a searing (if slaptacular) .380/.421/465 in 78 plate appearances thanks to an unreal .510 batting average on balls in play.

But in the popular imagination, Bush is less remembered for his hitting than he is for his baserunning, particularly by one Michael Kay. Several times in recent weeks, YES’s lead broadcaster has invoked the memory of Bush’s prowess as a pinch-runner;  to hear him talk, it’s like the Yankees had the second coming of Rickey Henderson on their roster, a superhuman speedster capable of derring-do on the basepaths. The facts don’t exactly fit the legend, however.

Bush stole all of six bases in 1998 while being caught three times. He was 3-for-3 in his 12 starts, but just 3-for-5 in 18 pinch-running appearances (10 of which were for Chili Davis or Darryl Strawberry), and 0-for-1 when he stayed in the game after pinch-running (Kay’s partner John Flaherty gunned him down in that one). He did score eight runs as a pinch-runner in those 18 opportunities, and the Yankees won all eight of those games, so it’s easy to see where his presence might be seen as something of a good luck charm. But get this: none of those three pinch-steals came in those eight wins. Meanwhile, the Yankees went 5-5 in games in which he pinch-ran but didn’t score, and only 1-2 in which he stole a base as a pinch-runner.

Baseball Prospectus has a stat called Equivalent Baserunning Runs, which measures not only the value of a player’s contribution in the stolen bases and caught stealing departments but also his advancement on hits, groundouts, fly outs and other means (wild pitches, passed balls, etc). According to the numbers, Bush was worth 1.4 runs above average on the bases in 1998, the fourth-highest total on the team (Derek Jeter was first at 3.4 runs, and both Paul O’Neill and Chad Curtis had 1.5; Scott Brosius was last at -4.1 runs). That’s a negligible contribution on a team that won 114 regular-season games. Looking at it another way, via the Win Probability Added stat found in his Baseball-Reference.com game log, Bush added 0.182 wins via his clutch pinch-running skills.

Bush did make five pinch-running appearances in the 1998 postseason, but again, the numbers aren’t terribly convincing. He stole two bases, one in the Division Series and one in the League Championship Series, but didn’t score on either occasion. The one time he did score a run, it was a ninth-inning insurance run in ALCS Game Four, when the Yankees already led 3-0.

Prior to the 1999 season, Bush would be included in the trade which sent David Wells to Toronto in exchange for Roger Clemens. He was the Blue Jays’ regular second baseman that year, and enjoyed a strong season (.320/.353/421, with 32 steals in 40 attempts. The returns soon diminished; he was a part-timer in 2000 and 2001, drew his release from Toronto in early 2002 and caught on with the Marlins, went to spring training with the Padres in 2003 and was cut, and wound up his career with the Yankees in 2004, playing in nine games with the big club but spending most of the season at Triple-A Columbus.

The Legend of Homer Bush persists in Michael Kay’s mind — and doubtless those of others — because the 1998 Yankees were a team for the ages with a great bench (Davis, Strawberry and Tim Raines being its primary weapons). Because they carried fewer pitchers in those days than they do now, Joe Torre had the fortune of employing an extra tactical weapon in this unassuming and otherwise seldom-used infielder/pinch-runner. Bush was like plush leather seats in a Cadillac, a luxury which gave the Yankees’ championship ride an extra touch of style, but one which didn’t help them get anywhere they weren’t already going.

Bye-Bye August (Worrying)

Remember the year Denny Neagle was a Yankee? Brrrr. (AP)

August was not a great hitting month for most Yankees. Only one player hit over .300 for the month. Marcus Thames went a bit crazy with some rare regular playing time, batting .344 with seven home runs, but he only got in 61 at-bats. Nick Swisher (.296/.356/.491), Robinson Cano (.292/.385/.491), and Mark Teixeira (.289/.355/.629 with nine homers) had the biggest full-time months, and Jorge Posada did some very typical .259/.368/.481 swinging, which you will take from any backstop not named Mauer.

The other side of the ledger was pretty much dominated by Derek Jeter. As I tweeted earlier today, Jeter hit .239/.318/.333 in August, .253/.328/.346 since hot April (109 games). He finished the month by going 5-for-37 in his last ten games, including a current 0-for-11, or 2-for-30. I’ve written enough about Jeter’s struggles this year that I’m not going to ring that bell again, but the reality remains that he is now a lock to have his worst season (if he hit .405 in September, he’d finish with a .292 average, 22 points below his career mark). He’s hitting more grounders than ever, has been as impatient as he’s ever been. The Yankees have little choice but to re-sign him, but watching Jeter struggle towards 3,000 hits would be more depressing than celebratory.

Other Yankees who tried on their Halloween masks two months early included Brett Gardner (though, as I suggested yesterday, Gardner salvaged things with his high OBP), the third base subs for A-Rod—Ramiro Pena hit .250/.262/.300 and Eduardo Nunez grounded into three double plays in nine chances, Austin Kearns, Francisco Cervelli, and Lance Berkman. As Cliff discussed earlier this week, Curtis Granderson’s rejiggered swing hasn’t yet resulted in a real hot streak. We’ll give A-Rod, who hit .226 but homered about once every 10 at-bats, an incomplete.

On the pitching side, the bullpen was the highlight of the month. You know the good and bad of the rotation (mostly bad). The more of the season goes by, the more this team reminds me of Joe Torre’s 2000 Yankees, a team that won the 2000 World Series, but was probably one of the weakest championship teams both in franchise and baseball history. Offensively, the ten-years-later version has a lot more going for it, but the starting pitching may actually be thinner. Postseason teams have good bullpens, which means that if you get taken out of a game early, your offense is a whole lot less likely to come back than it would be against the Orioles’ pen.

Gardner vs. Crawford: The Debate Continues

Brett Gardner: Can he feel Carl Crawford breathing down his neck? (AP)

Brett Gardner has been a different player since injuring his wrist at the end of June. Hitting .321/.403/.418 in 70 games to that point, he has hit only .233/.368/.327 since and has been considerably more reluctant to run—having made 29 stolen base attempts prior to the injury, he has gone only 15 times in 52 games since. His high on-base percentage means that you can’t quite call what he’s going through a slump, but it may also, paradoxically, suggest how much the wrist is still bothering him. In those first 70 games, Gardner took walks in 11.3 percent of his plate appearances. Since, he’s walked in 16.4 percent. While we laud the approach for its results, what we’re also seeing is a player increasingly determined to not swing. It’s not clear which Gardner is the “real” one going forward, but it’s clear that the current version is not the same one we saw through June.

Earlier this season, at about the moment Gardner got hurt, I asked if his performance had rendered the Yankees’ presumed pursuit of soon-to-be free agent Carl Crawford unnecessary. At that time, Gardner had outperformed the veteran; Crawford was hitting .310/.373/.488 when Gardner got hurt. His superior extra-base abilities didn’t quite close the gap created by Gardner’s greater patience, while his four-steal advantage came at the cost of three additional caught stealing.

Since Gardner’s wrist was damaged, Crawford has had the advantage on Gardner, though not quite as decisively as you might think. In 50 games from July 1 to present, he has hit .276/.310/.458 with 13 steals and one caught stealing. Crawford still hits with more authority than Gardner—almost everyone does—but his aggression has, at least in this phase of his career, made him below-average at getting on base. You might think that this urge to swing might be a consequence of his recent move to the third spot in the order, down from his traditional number two, but Crawford’s career OBP is only .336, which is about league-average for 2002-2010, the years of his career (the league OBP is .329 this season).

By most measures, Crawford is having his best season this year, but only by a little bit. With the exception of his 2008 injury season, he’s been very consistent since coming into his full powers in 2005. His overall rates for that span are .301/.345/.459, and this year’s total performance is virtually indistinguishable from those other seasons. That is one huge advantage that he has over Gardner: a buyer knows what he’s going to get. All we know of Gardner is that he had a nice three months, a bad two months, and currently has a nice little five-game hitting streak going (7-for-16) that may or may not augur a return to his earlier form.

We also know this about Crawford: he’s a much better hitter at home and on turf (one and the same for the Rays) than he is on regular surfaces. His career road rates are .286/.327/.422. If that’s how he would hit as a Yankee, Brian Cashman would be better off deleting his agents’ phone numbers from his cell phone. This is especially true if it would take something like a five-year deal to sign Crawford. That would buy the acquiring team his age-29 to age age-33 seasons. Show me a .286 hitter with limited power and patience, declining speed, and therefore a resultant drop in infield hits (16 percent of Crawford’s career hits have been leg hits; without them, he’s a .260 hitter) and I’ll show you a team that just signed the latest iteration of Mets-era Vince Coleman. Crawford may be more valuable to the Rays and for the Rays than he would be with almost any other team.

Given Gardner’s patience, speed (reluctant basestealer or not), and defense, if he can continue to hit as he has overall this year—not his great spring numbers nor his poor summer numbers, but the aggregate .286/.389/.382—he will continue to be quite valuable, and might even outperform Crawford given the latter’s likely diminished results in another ballpark. Given his age (26) and overall profile, Gardner should probably be allowed to depart when he reaches free agency, but that date is five years away. Until we see if he finishes the season in the strong form we can keep an open mind, but for now Gardner seems the better long-term bet than Crawford.

Minor League Nibbles

Chances are none of these propsects will be as good as Ruffing, Gordon, Dickey, Keller, or DiMaggio, but we track 'em anyway (AP).

The finals weeks of minor-league ball are upon us. The Gulf Coast League Yankees failed to make the playoffs, but there are five minor-league affiliates still in action. Here are a few quick hits on who performed well (or not so well) during Monday’s games, including updates on a couple of rehabbers.

Brandon Laird, 3B, Triple-A Scranton: 1-for-5, 2 K. A few weeks ago, when Laird was first promoted to Triple-A, it seemed as though he could do no wrong. He had been crushing Double-A offerings, and in his Triple-A debut, he mashed a couple more homers for good measure. Since then, it hasn’t been pretty. In his last seven games, Laird is 2-for-26 with nine strikeouts, giving him a miserable .215/.237/.312 line at Scranton. Of course, it’s a new level and the righty is still adjusting, but it hasn’t been the headlining performance fans hoped for after his Double-A exploits.

Alfredo Aceves, RHP, Rehabbing in Triple-A Scranton: 1 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1/1 K/BB.. If Laird’s Triple-A line has been ugly, it’s Aceves’ rehab appearances in Double- and Triple-A have been hideous. At Trenton, Aceves tossed eight innings and allowed five earned runs, most of them coming on extra-base hits. Despite the poor results, the Bombers sent him to Scranton for more work. Though he didn’t allow any runs in 2/3 innings in his first outing, he did have two walks. In his next outing, he gave up two hits and two earned runs while walking two more. It’s great to see Ace working so hard to come back to the team, but it’s clear that something is not right with him.

Lance Berkman, DH, Rehabbing in Double-A Trenton: 2-for-5, 1 K. When the Yankees put Berkman on the DL, it seemed that they were looking to add some infield insurance and that he would be back in the minimum. His line from last night seems to back up that theory. Get ready to rev up the Dobermans to make sure he’s ready!

Corban Joseph, 2B, Double-A Trenton: 2-for-4, 1/1 K/BB. Joseph was promoted to Double-A at the beginning of August, when it became certain that David Adams would not be coming back this season. He has not performed well, as he is sitting at .226//.315/.333 since arriving and is hitting much more at home (.261/.346/.326) than on the road (.191/.286/.340), but since this is his second two-hit game in a row, let’s send a little love his way in the hopes that a hot streak is on the horizon.

Slade Heathcott, CF, Low-A Charleston: 1-for-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K. Clearly unhappy that I listed him as a white flagger earlier on, Heathcott has been hitting somewhat better lately (.237/.356/.447 in his last 10 games), and last night he hit a walk-off home run. The strikeouts are still troubling; in the last 10 games, he has been rung up 15 times. It beats him hitting into a double play, sure, but a whiff rate of Heathcott’s level is alarming.

Rotation Deliberation: Making Plans

Jorge Posada congratulates Javier Vazquez on another solid long-relief outing. (AP)

Following up on Steve’s prescient post on the Yankees pitching predicament, I think we saw the Yankees’ plan emerging in Tuesday night’s game. With Javy Vazquez having thrown 70 pitches on Dustin Moseley’s turn last night and having now pitched well in two long relief outings (combined line: 9 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K), I fully expect Vazquez to take Moseley’s start the next time through the rotation. That would give Vazquez two or three starts, the second of which could be skipped due to an off day, to prove himself before Andy Pettitte’s mid-September return, at which point the Yankees can reevaluate how Vazquez, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova have been pitching in order to determine whose spot Pettitte will take.

Also worth noting, Vazquez said after the game that he had made a small mechanical adjustment at pitching coach Dave Eiland’s suggestion. He’s now bringing his left leg further back toward second base when he begins his delivery in order to build more momentum toward the plate. It’s comically simple, but whether it’s actually giving Vazquez a bit more oomph behind his pitches, surreptitiously helping to put other aspects of his delivery back in line, or simply working as a placebo, something for Vazquez to focus on to clear his mind of negative or problematic overthinking (breathe through your eyelids, kid), it seems to be working.

At the same time, there’s a danger in putting too much stock in garbage time relief against not only a weak-hitting team, but in the latter innings, the bench of a weak-hitting team. I agree with Steve that giving a hot hand from Triple-A Moseley’s spot would be a better solution right now and for future seasons, but then an effective Vazquez, while elusive, is worth pursuing. I don’t put much stock in Vazquez’s poor showing in 15 2/3 postseason innings, most of which came in 2004 when he was hiding a shoulder injury. I’m more interested in his 2.76 ERA across 11 starts and 71 2/3 innings in the middle of this season.

COACH’S CORNER

Speaking of mechanical adjustments, I thought it would be worth revisiting Curtis Granderson’s performance since Kevin Long’s changes to his swing. Dating the changes to August 10, Granderson has hit .254/.347/.476 in 72 plate appearances with the new swing. Relative to his .240/.307/.417 season marks prior to the changes, that’s certainly an improvement, but it still leaves Granderson somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 levels of production and the returns do seem to be diminishing (Curtis went 10-for-30 with three homers in his first 34 PA after the changes, but is just 6-for-33 with one dinger, his only extra-base hit out of those six, in 38 PA since). More encouraging is the fact that Granderson has hit .398/.476/.677 (7-for-18 with three walks and three extra-base hits) against lefties since the changes. The sample sizes here are absurdly small, of course, but they’ll only get so large before Joe Girardi will have to make some key lineup decisions in games that really matter.

Down and Out in L.A.

It's been a rough season in Los Angeles for this pair of familiar faces (AP).

As you no doubt heard if you were watching or listening over the weekend, the backdrop to the Yankees taking care of business on the south side of Chicago was the White Sox’s attempt to pry Manny Ramirez loose from the Dodgers. Hours after the series ended, the Sox were awarded the dreadlocked 38-year-old slugger via a waiver claim. They’ll pick up around $4 million in remaining salary, most of it deferred, an expensive lottery ticket for the postseason given that they entered Monday 4 1/2 games back in the AL Central, with an 8.9 percent chance of making the postseason according to Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds.

Some big-name writers have circulated the meme that Ramirez once again quit on a team in the midst of a race, but while it’s true that he made just 54 starts in the team’s 131 games due to three separate trips to the disabled list, he’s not the culprit. As I argued over at my own site — with some colorful language, so caveat emptor — it’s old friend Joe Torre who quit on the Dodgers by failing to play Ramirez when available, the latest in a litany of sins which hint that the former Yankee skipper could be on his way out.

Torre was the toast of Tinseltown after taking the Dodgers to the National League Championship Series in his first two seasons, the first time the team had managed that feat since 1977-1978, a pair of years in which they fell to the Yankees in the World Series and not coincidentally also Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda’s first two years at the helm (I know these facts like the back of my hand, having grown up a Dodger fan during this era). This year hasn’t gone nearly as well for Torre and the Dodgers as 2008 and 2009 did, primarily because the team was handicapped at the outset by the pennywise poundfoolishness triggered by the divorce proceedings of owners Frank and Jamie McCourt. Over the winter, McCourt hamstrung the Dodgers by not allowing GM Ned Colletti to offer arbitration to free agents Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson, then failing to replace them adequately as they cut payroll.

Torre, who let a one-year contract extension offer dangle in the face of this mishegoss, may have privately seethed, but he’s publicly bitten his tongue, a wise move if he wished to ingratiate himself to his employers but not one that’s served the team’s competitive interests. A Hall of Fame-bound manager of his stature could and probably should have thrown his weight around by vocalizing, say, the Dodgers’ need for another proven starting pitcher.

Torre hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory elsewhere this season. He’s made a hash of the bullpen at times, failing to get closer Jonathan Broxton save opportunities early in the year, then overusing him in non-save situations. Worse, he quickly burned out his top setup men, a tale that will be all too familiar to Yankee fans. Righty Ramon Troncoso and lefty George Sherrill made a combined 28 appearances in April and another 25 in May, a pace that comes out to 168 combined appearances over the course of the season; not coincidentally, that not-so-dynamic duo has combined for an 8.06 Fair Run Average while each facing demotions to the minors. To be fair, the Dodger bullpen ranks third in the league by BP’s advanced metrics, but those quality arms may be in Proctorville by the time the season is all said and done.

Worse, the young, homegrown players on whom so much of the Dodgers’ present and future depends have regressed on Torre’s watch. Catcher Russell Martin, first baseman James Loney and center field Matt Kemp have played mediocre ball for most of the season. The production of Martin, who once looked to be the Dodgers’ answer to Derek Jeter — a face-of-the-franchise leader — declined for the third straight season before it ended abruptly due to a hip injury earlier this month. Torre’s overuse — starting him behind the plate 271 games in 2008-2009, the third highest total in the majors, and using him in 298 overall, the highest — can’t help but be implicated in that decline; as a former catcher himself, he should have known better, particularly as Martin’s production flagged. After earning All-Star honors last year, the still-raw Kemp has at times suffered from braindead play at the plate, in the field and on the basepaths. After some heavy-handed benching by Torre which was accompanied by unsubtle comments from henchman Larry Bowa, Kemp appears to want to talk his way out of town if he can’t play his way out.

Finally, there’s Torre’s handling of Ramirez, who at .311/.405/.510 still rates among the game’s top hitters; his .328 True Average would rank third in the league given enough plate appearances to qualify. Around his injuries, he started just 54 games out of the 72 games for which he was active, meaning that Torre didn’t start him a whopping 25 percent of the time — about double what you might expect for an aging player of his caliber. The Dodgers went 32-22 in his starts, scoring 5.3 runs per game, and 35-42 in games he didn’t start, averaging 3.7 runs. Four of those non-starts came in the days immediately after Ramirez hit the waiver wire, three of them against the Rockies, the team directly above them in the NL West standings.

As the settlement of the waiver claim went about its glacial pace — Ramirez’s no-trade clause and the amount of money remaining constituted obvious obstacles to surmount — Torre tried to have it both ways, suggesting an urgency to the games against their rivals but not fielding his best available lineup, playing slaptastic Scott Podsednik in the slugger’s stead. As I wrote at Baseball Prospectus yesterday:

Claiming that the decision for the benching was his and not on orders from the front office, and that he was “trying to win games,” Torre shoveled more manure in the space of four days than he had in 13 years at the helm of the Yankees. “This is just my dumb move,” he told Los Angeles Times beat reporter Dylan Hernandez, fumfering disingenuously about getaway days, the big outfield of Coors Field, team chemistry, and the speed of Podsednik. “There’s no reason I can give you that makes sense. A lot of what I do is a feel thing.” Somewhere, Orlando Hudson nodded silently.

Alex Rodriguez could probably relate as well. The end result is that either Torre’s acting as the henchman for the front office or going on a gut instinct which is demonstrably antithetical to winning baseball, since the difference between the two hitters — about a quarter of a run per game according to BP’s Marginal Lineup Value Rate stat (MLVr) — is too large to be made up with the glove. Either choice is a long way removed from Torre’s days as the Yankees’ skipper, because for once his attempt at accountability rings false. Say it ain’t so, Joe.

Given that the 70-year-old Torre’s contract is up at the end of this season, the aforementioned litany suggests he’s either lost his touch or his team — not an uncommon occurrence for managers of a certain age, which is worth remembering for anyone still pining for Torre’s pinstriped days — and is unlikely to return. Torre has said that he’ll decide his fate by Labor Day but won’t reveal his plans until the Dodgers’ playoff fate (or lack of same) is clear — a day that’s rapidly approaching given that the team entered Tuesday nine games back, with just a 4.1 percent chance at the playoffs.

Which brings us to the question of his potential successor, another man with Yankee ties, current Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly. Back in the spring, the buzz around the game was that Donnie Baseball was the heir apparent to Torre; Mattingly himself confirmed that the team had made overtures towards that end, albeit with 2012 in mind.

The problem is that Mattingly has never managed at any level, a fact that hurt him when he lost out to Joe Girardi for the Yankees’ job following the 2007 season, and one that’s continued to dog him in his rare opportunities to take the wheel this year. His lack of experience showed when while serving as acting manager in the wake of a Torre ejection he became the victim of a bizarre rules mix-up involving a second mound visit (the Donnie Double-Dip Debacle, we called it back in my day). Mattingly and the Dodgers certainly got a raw deal in that game, but as manager he should have had the presence of mind a) to not make the mistake in the first place; and b) to register an official protest immediately, which would have allowed the game to be reset to that point if indeed the league ruled an incorrect call had been made (think: the George Brett Pine Tar Game). Furthermore, while managing the team during an exhibition game in Taiwan this past spring, Mattingly also made a mistake with his lineup card, resulting in the Dodgers batting out of turn — an embarrassing gaffe.

Those mistakes may have turned the tide against Mattingly’s eventual coronation. Over the past two weeks, both USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale and SI.com’s Jon Heyman have suggested that Tim Wallach, the manager of the Dodgers’ Triple-A Albuquerque affiliate, has leapfrogged Mattingly as the favored son. Wallach’s got longstanding ties with the city and the team as well as managerial experience; up until the July 31 trading deadline, he also had a son playing in the organization, just as Mattingly still does — though to call 2006 supplemental first-round pick Preston Mattingly‘s career flatlining would be generous; yours truly has as much chance of playing for the Dodgers at this point.

Even if Torre departs and Wallach  winds up getting the call, Mattingly could still find himself managing somewhere. In one of our staff confabs back at the mythical Pinstriped Bible hideaway (can’t tell you where it is, kids — it’s secret) colleague Cliff Corcoran suggested he might be a better fit with the Cubs given his area ties (he’s from Evansville, Indiana) and the possibility of being closer to his family. Sure, that’s probably a longshot, but hardly much more of one than the idea of Girardi (or even Torre) calling Wrigley Field home next year. Come to think of it, that’s a scenario via which Donnie Baseball would then find his way back to the Bronx as the managerial carousel goes round and round and round and round…

filed under: Don Mattingly,Joe Torre

Senior Swipes

Rickey burned so bright the elephant on his sleeve had to wear shades. (AP)

In the first inning of Monday night’s game, YES showed a graphic indicating that Coco Crisp’s current streak of 14 stolen bases without being caught was the longest by a member of the A’s since Rickey Henderson stole 15 in a row in 1998. Left unsaid was the fact that Rickey Henderson was 39 years old in 1998.

Rickey was in his fourth and final tour of duty with his home town team in 1998 and led his league in steals for the 12th and final time and the majors in steals for the fifth and final time, swiping 66 bags at a blistering 84 percent success rate.

Did I mention he was 39 that season? Only four other players in the entire history of major league baseball have stolen 66 or more bases in the remainder of their careers after their age-38 season. Here’s that list:

107 – Cap Anson (1891-1897)
89 – Davey Lopes (1984-1987)
82 – Honus Wagner (1913-1917)
73 – Jim O’Rourke (1888-1893)

Forty-three-year-old Omar Vizquel has 54 steals in the last five seasons, but he has stolen just 11 in the last two seasons combined and is still a dozen short of Rickey’s age-39 total alone.

As for Rickey, he stole 109 bases in his forties and had an appropriately off-the-charts 175 steals after the age of 38. Crisp, meanwhile, has stolen 159 bases in his nine-year major league career.

Brought to you by the Repository for Historical Appreciation of Rickey Henderson’s Awesomeness

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